UK General Election 2017

In the run-up to the 2017 UK election pollsters, academics and commentators were all agreed. The incumbent Conservative Prime Minister, Theresa May, would be elected by a landslide – a 100 seat majority was widely predicted.

For the first three weeks of the election campaign Impact Social’s analysis concurred with this view.

On week four - contrary to the “expert” analysis  - sentiment within the electorate changed dramatically.

Impact Social analysis beats the pollsters


Our insight showed that all was not as it seemed. The Conservative campaign was coming off the rails.


May was rapidly losing support and momentum, with her team and the political establishment seemingly unaware.


"The social data hints at a support for Corbyn that the pollsters are not finding, and those voices may be at the young end of the demographic more likely to be on social media and less likely to vote. If they can be stirred, there’s life in this election yet. And even more in its aftermath.”
The Times 20th May 2017


This situation only worsened for May as Impact Social’s analysis showed a seemly unstoppable upward spiral in support of Corbyn. Simultaneously the previously enthusiastic support for May dried up week by week. All reputable pollsters (YouGov aside) still predicted a comfortable victory for the Conservatives which was completely at odds with the Impact Social analysis the findings of which were published in The Times



"This has been a poor campaign for May and it now looks like the election gamble is not going to pay off, and she Will return to No 10 (probably) considerably weaker (certainly) than when she started. Come June 9, Brexit will just be one on a long list of problems that she has given herself."

The Times 3rd June 2017


You might also be interested in:
UK European Referendum 2016
UK Elections - how did the pollsters get it so wrong
Successfully predicting the outcome of the US Presidential Election