Key Takeaways
1. Biden saying very little. Not defined by anything other than “not Trump”. Dangerous position to be in. Trump well ahead in separate analysis on economy and China
2. Woodward book makes little impact on Trump, swing voters talk instead of bigger issues like Russia, corruption, and Covid. Should Trump get the attention off himself and onto the issues that impact people his sentiment score will rise. Biden benefits a little from the military fall out. Swing voters say he is “a good guy” but give little reasoning. There is no explanation as to why they like him. With little to say Biden seems to have hit a ceiling.
3. Biden net sentiment nosedives. Support is likely still there but voters have become bored and Biden needs to give them something to rally around. Meanwhile Trump gets UEA peace deal and uses it to present himself as a man of peace and label Biden as a warmonger. This is as close as it gets between Trump and Biden. This highlights Trump’s success when he gets the conversation away from himself and onto an issue of importance. In other words, Trump gains in support when he shows more delivery and less circus.
4. News of Justice Ginsberg’s passing is seen as a game changer as Trump moves to fill the SCOTUS post. Media predict a firestorm between left and right. But this fails to occur. Swing voters conclude that Trump is within his rights and quickly move on. Even the impact on women’s rights and abortion are given short shrift. Trump flatlining heading into the first TV debate and needs to do well if he is to bridge the gap to Biden. Yet there is an increase in support for Biden over the period. Again this is about character and personality, not policy.
5. Trump tax returns leaked and he is largely blamed for a chaotic TV debate. But his sentiment remains largely the same, suggesting minds are made up. Trump contracts Covid, which brings the issue back into focus.
6. Covid fallout makes Trump look reckless (not tough). Biden basks in the contrast. He says little, but is spoken of as “responsible” and “presidential”. Conversation continues to be more anti Trump than pro Biden. Biden is letting Trump talk his way out of the White House. Each passing week shows a small but significant number of posts professing to a change in vote from R to D. Very few go the other way.
7. Trump says less and his sentiment score improves as he makes himself less of a target. Floating voters respond positively, but will Trump learn?
8. Hunter Biden emails:- The Trump attacks serve to highlight his own family’s failings. Also serves to bring people out in defence of Biden. So the attack backfires on Trump. Biden has momentum.
9. Trump rallies see him shouting into the wind. Minds are made up. No one cares outside his base.
Biden remains dignified.
10. Biden enjoys a narrow win. But a failure to craft or communicate a message which resonated with voters saw the Democrats fail to gain control of Senate and lose seats in the House
Conclusion:
Trump failed to get the attention away from himself and his chaotic style and onto theissue where he was strongest, the economy. Consequently Trump talked his way out of the White House. Very few floating voters genuinely thought Biden was a great candidate. Less still spoke of him making a good president. What they saw was the antidote to Trump. calm, decent, dependable – boring even. They didn’t vote for Biden because of any great plan on the economy, climate or healthcare. They voted for him because they liked him, and he wasn’t Donald Trump.
Our unique 40,000 floating voter database shows who is winning the race for the White House and why.
Download the full reports below
