Harris Leads as Swing Voters Choose Between ‘The Devil and the Deep Blue Sea’

November 04, 2024

So there you have it, on the eve of the 2024 presidential election, our 40,000 tracker shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 8 pts (-09 to -17) among swing voters. This should come as no surprise to regular readers of our analysis as, despite spearheading a largely unconvincing campaign, Harris has at no point fallen behind Trump among this vital demographic. Our conclusion is therefore simple, independents prefer Harris and if this preference is reflected in turnout she will become America’s 47th President. However, this is not without caveat which we will turn too shortly. For now, let’s look at the positives from her perspective.

Harris has ended her campaign on a relative high. A final net sentiment score of -09 is hardly JFK territory but preferable to -17 she had slumped to just three weeks ago. This has been achieved by turning her efforts largely away from the Harris ‘joy’ strategy and towards the perceived dangers of a Trump presidency. We can see the fruits of these efforts within the negative Trump discussion where independents talk of the former president as a ‘danger to democracy’, ‘fascist’ of having a ‘dark agenda’ and being ‘anti women’.

For his part Trump has also put up a good fight with many of the main themes of his campaign hitting the conscience of swing voters including abortion, trans issues, the economy and immigration.

Yet ultimately this race comes down to character. On the plus side for Harris we have consistently witnessed a small but significant amount of discussion among right leaning swing voters suggesting they are moving towards her, yet have struggled to find similar conversations going Trump’s way. In a tight election this may be all Harris needs for victory. However this assumes that preference equals turnout and unfortunately for the VP this is where she may come unstuck. Back in 2020 we stated the polls were wrong, there would be no Biden landslide as swing voters didn’t really like him, they just hated Trump. Back then Biden finished on 0 with Trump -26, a 26 point difference. Swing voters clearly wanted to keep Trump away from the presidency more than they wanted Biden in the White House.

Today we see Trump in a slightly better position than four years ago with Harris at -09. So the ‘lesser of two evils’ approach is today magnified further due to the additional unpopularity of Harris. Our final tracker is therefore an illusion. Harris is not preferred to Trump, by just how much, we are about to find out.

Harris’ Failure to Shake Incumbent Tag Puts Trump on Pole

October 25, 2024

Over the previous three weeks Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have been engaging in a race to the bottom. Both have been losing support at the wrong time as mistakes have been seized upon by their rival or frowned at by the electorate. The last seven days have seen this trend into reverse as our 40K swing voter tracker shows Trump jumping 9pts (-23 to -14) and Harris up 4pts (-17 to -13) which puts Harris 1pt ahead with around 12 days to go.

Trump will be particularly pleased as his surge in support is being fuelled by people posting directly in favor of him (rather than in reaction to Harris), which has also countered concerted attacks from the other side suggesting he is confused, unhinged and a threat to democracy.

Similarly, Harris has enjoyed increased positivity around her candidacy. This will be welcome news for Team Harris as enhanced levels of enthusiasm will likely influence turn out. However on the negative side Harris is still failing to shed her ‘incumbent’ tag. As this tracker has consistently shown, ‘joy’ and ‘hope’ has waned since the TV debate and a failure to articulate how her presidency would differ from Biden’s has led to a vacuum. Consequently, many independents conclude that Harris is at least partly to blame for the perceived failures of the current administration and are unconvinced she has the solutions or capability to put it right. So for many independents, when Harris invites swing voters to ‘turn the page’ the new chapter repeats the old story.

For this reason, despite the recent uptick in support, Harris is 9pts behind where Biden was four years ago. Back then Biden wasn’t the incumbent, so simply badged himself ‘Not Trump’. Harris, in failing to divorce herself from issues like inflation and immigration, does not have that luxury. So despite being 1pt ahead of Trump overall, the VP is in considerably worse position than her predecessor.

A late surge is of course possible. Harris’ current attempt to project Trump as a dangerous fascist might work, particularly if it reminds undecideds of why they voted against Trump last time around. However, in reality this is just a re-pining of the ‘Not Trump’ badge – a meagre attempt to cover the ‘incumbent’ label which lurks underneath.

Skepticism Grows Over Harris’ Suitability For Office

September 27, 2024

When swing voters realized Kamala Harris was going to be the Democratic candidate for president many went online to express their excitement. At that point her net sentiment score reached a dizzy +10pts (Biden never got above +1). As this tracker has shown since 2020, given the opportunity independents will abandon Donald Trump if they are provided with a viable option. Harris’ pitch is therefore straightforward, ‘I am a credible alternative to Trump. A chance for a fresh future, an opportunity to turn the page’. However, unfortunately for Team Harris this message is rapidly losing appeal with the gap between the VP and Trump down to just 2pts. To give this context, Biden narrowly beat Trump in 2020 with a gap of 19pts (-5 to -24).

Like what you see? Check out our recent library of Swing Voter Analysis below:

08 August 2024: Democrats Fail to Capitalize on Abortion Issue

16 July 2024: Trump Victory is not Inevitable [Trump shooting]

04 June 2024: Trump Trial Shows Silence is Golden

Harris Leads as Trump Prioritizes Personal over Policy

August 06, 2024

The Democrats’ swift and ruthless nomination of Kamala Harris following the defenestration of President Biden caught almost everyone by surprise including, it is clear from this analysis, Donald Trump. This is the first in a series of head to head trackers which will show who is winning in the minds of swing voters and why. As we can clearly see here, first blood goes to the Democrats…read on here