Swing Voter Sentiment - Harris Vs Trump
Beyond the Polls - How Our Analysis Unveiled the Real Election Story
November 06, 2024
On the eve of the 2024 election, pollsters and pundits alike called it a toss-up—a race balanced on a knife edge. But our analysis at Impact Social stated this was an illusion. By physically reading thousands of swing voters’ social media posts from each camp's perspective—and comparing them to identical data from 2020—we were able to show the real story beyond the polls.
Harris' Initial Surge
Kamala Harris' campaign started strongly, capitalising on the desire for change and a fresh start. Her messaging around 'joy', 'a new chapter', and 'turning the page' resonated with swing voters initially. Her net sentiment score reached +10, a feat Joe Biden never achieved, signalling the potential for a significant shift away from Donald Trump. To profit Harris would also need to establish herself as a credible alternative. A future leader with the policies and character to take the country forward.
Loss of Momentum and the Incumbent Tag
However, this initial excitement quickly faded as Harris struggled to distance herself from the perceived failures of the Biden administration. Swing voters began questioning her ability to address issues like immigration and inflation. The message of "turning the page" felt hollow, as many saw her candidacy as a continuation of the existing administration's policies.
The impact of being the semi-incumbent was evident in Harris' net sentiment score, which steadily declined throughout the campaign. By late September, the gap between Harris and Trump narrowed to a mere 2 points, highlighting the dwindling support for her candidacy.
Key Events and Their Impact
TV Debate: Although Harris performed well in the presidential TV debate, her net sentiment score subsequently experienced a four-week decline. This indicates that while the debate momentarily boosted her standing, she failed to capitalise on the momentum and translate it into sustained support.
Obama's Intervention: Barack Obama's attempt to rally black male voters in support of Harris backfired, as swing voters found his message patronising and divisive. His net sentiment score (-16) mirrored that of Harris, further undermining her campaign rather than providing the intended boost.
Hurricane Helena: Harris' response to Hurricane Helena, viewed as an opportunity to demonstrate leadership, fell short of swing voter expectations. This allowed Trump to weaponize the situation, further damaging Harris's image and contributing to her declining net sentiment score.
Policies for Black Voters: The campaign's attempts to appeal to black voters through targeted policies, such as the liberalization of drug laws, were perceived as insensitive and stereotypical, alienating both black and non-black swing voters.
War in Gaza: The Biden administration's support for Israel during the war created a significant vulnerability for Harris. Non-Muslim swing voters expressed concern that Harris's support for Israel might overshadow her commitment to defeating Trump and addressing critical US issues. This suggests a potential loss of trust and raised questions about her judgment.
Trump's Connection with Swing Voters
Trump, on the other hand, succeeded in connecting with some swing voters through several key strategies:
Linking Harris to Biden’s Administration: By consistently associating Harris with the perceived shortcomings of the Biden administration, Trump successfully sowed doubt in voters' minds about her ability to bring change.
Focus on Key Issues: Trump effectively tapped into swing voter concerns by focusing on issues such as the economy, immigration, abortion, and trans issues. These topics resonated with a segment of the electorate and contributed to his improved standing.
Taking Interviews Which Resonate With Key Audiences: Trump’s appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience, where he presented a more composed and thoughtful persona, positively impacted his perception among some swing voters. They described him as “thoughtful,” “likeable,” “wise,” “presidential,” and “authentic,” highlighting the effectiveness of this approach in softening his image.
The 2020/2024 Comparison
Ahead of the 2020 presidential pollsters and pundits were in unison. Biden would win by a landslide. Impact Social contradicted the status quo by suggesting a Biden would win by a slim margin. Our swing voter track finished with Biden on 0 and Trump on -26 (26pts difference) Independents had told us they didn’t like Biden, but they loathed Trump.
Our tracker of 2024 told an entirely different story. After a whirlwind start Harris’ net sentiment score finished 9pts lower than Biden four years previously. Crucially, Trump ended 10pts higher. So while Trump had gained in support and momentum, Harris struggled to stay relevant.
This was crucial to the election outcome: although Harris held a slight lead among swing voters, it wasn’t driven by confidence in her leadership, which significantly impacted turnout. This reality, coupled with a relative surge in support for Trump could lead to only one outcome.
To win, Harris needed to build on her early momentum by convincing independents she had both the solutions to fix the country and the character to deliver them. Polls suggested at least half the country believed she could, but as we said on the eve of the election, this was just an illusion.
Newsweek Commissioned Impact Social to Provide Exclusive Analysis of The Election:
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