Swing Voter Sentiment - Trump
Trump Wants to Be on the Ballot. Be Careful What You Wish For
September 28, 2026
Donald Trump wants the midterms to be about Donald Trump. He has explicitly told Americans to “pretend that I’m on the ballot” in November. Five weeks out, our latest analysis suggests they may do exactly that — and therein lies the problem for Republicans. When swing voters think about Trump today, they are overwhelmingly negative. His net sentiment has fallen again, from -30 to -32, with negative conversation outweighing positive by nine to one. More importantly, what they increasingly associate with him are precisely the issues they will carry into the voting booth: the economy, Iran, corruption and his record in office.
Trump may not literally be on the ballot. But if he succeeds in putting himself in voters’ minds when they cast their votes, he puts all of that on the ballot with him. Be careful what you wish for.
General anti-Trump sentiment remains the largest negative category at 26%, while anti-GOP/MAGA sentiment accounts for 11% and corruption 9%. Iran and Trump’s record in office each account for 7%, alongside concerns about his health. But the biggest development is the economy.
Economic criticism now accounts for 13% of negative Trump conversation, making it comfortably the largest specific issue. For much of this year, we have repeatedly been struck by how little the economy featured in conversations about Trump. Voters might have been worried about their finances, but when they talked about the President, Epstein, Iran and the latest controversy tended to dominate.
That separation appears to be ending. Swing voters are talking about gas and diesel prices, inflation, housing and jobs — and increasingly connecting those pressures directly to Trump. The wider political environment reflects the same problem. Reuters/Ipsos recently found just 17% of Americans approving of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, which respondents most often identified as the issue likely to determine their midterm vote.
Iran is becoming part of that economic story too. The conflict has contributed to higher fuel costs, while some Republican candidates have begun putting distance between themselves and Trump over the war. Senate candidates Mike Rogers in Michigan and Ashley Hinson in Iowa have both called for a swift end to the conflict, explicitly connecting Iran with the financial pressures facing voters.
This is where Trump’s instruction to voters becomes particularly interesting. He wants Republican voters who turned out for him in 2024 to turn out again. He wants voters entering the booth thinking about Donald Trump. But our swing voters are increasingly connecting Trump with the economy, Iran, corruption and dissatisfaction with his record. And 11% of negative conversation is now directed specifically at the GOP and MAGA.
Perhaps even more striking is the weakness of the positive conversation. Only 4% of all Trump conversation in this wave is positive. Even within that tiny pool, straightforward pro-Trump sentiment accounts for just 14%. By contrast, 43% is anti-Democrat.
This does not mean Republican voters have disappeared. This tracker measures sentiment within online conversation among our swing-voter panel, not voting intention. But it tells us something important about the political energy surrounding Trump. Much of the limited positive conversation is about opposing Democrats or defending the Republican side rather than expressing enthusiasm for Trump himself.
That creates the central contradiction five weeks from Election Day. Trump’s political strength has always rested partly on his extraordinary ability to make politics about himself. Now he is deliberately trying to do it again. He wants November to become a referendum on his presidency.
Perhaps it will. But if swing voters enter the voting booth thinking about Trump, our latest analysis suggests they may also be thinking about the economy, Iran, corruption and a presidency about which negative conversation currently outweighs positive by nine to one.
Trump wants voters to pretend he is on the ballot. At -32 among swing voters, he might want to be careful what he wishes for.