Swing Voter Sentiment - GOP VP Hopefuls

GOP VP Candidates Rejected By Swing Voters

May 28, 2024

Trump Score Card Ratings...

LOYALTY

The challenge for all Rep VEEP wannabes is that Trump demands a certain degree of sucking up. He needs to know his VP is going to be on his side no matter what - that they are prepared to defend the indefensible. However what is clear from the data is that swing voters recoil at witnessing leading public figures behaving so obsequiously. They see through the sycophancy, the fawning and the fake adoration. Admittedly it is a fine line to win the ultimate approval of Donald Trump while retaining respect for yourself and of the electorate. Burgum for example is doing well with our panel as his personal dignity commands swing voter respect, however his failure to offer unadulterated support for Trump will see him marked down on the loyalty card. He is followed by JD Vance and then, by some distance, Tim Scott who in sucking up to Trump has a squirm impact all on his own. Kristi Noem is discounted as her poor relationship with man’s best friend is all anyone is talking about.

REACHING OUT

The winning VP candidate has to show they can refresh parts of the electorate Trump can’t reach. In this respect Tim Scott appears to be doing well. However this is more of an assumption than reality as swing voters speak simultaneously about him being the ‘obvious pick’ while having nothing positive to say about him. Similarly, there’s very little to suggest JD Vance has much to offer this demographic. There is a hint that Burgum may appeal to those on the right who hate Trump, however his low profile entails that any potential magnetism is as yet untested and unrealized. Meanwhile Noem’s reach appears to have become drastically limited as ‘puppy gate’ has reduced her appeal to MAGA voters, let alone undecided suburban moms.

CAST NO SHADOW

Fame is important. The winning candidate needs to be famous but not too famous – or risk over shadowing Trump. And populist in word and intention, but not in persona. Until her animal relations disaster Noem was doing well in this respect. Yet now – right leaning swing voters with memories of Sarah Palin - are merely thankful that issues such as her treatment of animals and a fictitious despot meeting have been revealed ahead of the Trump pick. Of the remaining candidates, it is debatable who has the most presence between Vance and Scott. In reality most swing voters don’t really care. But you have to be in it to win it which is a problem for Burgum. He is liked by the few who know him, but his shadow is so small it seems he walks only at night or high noon.

CONCLUSION

The impact of the leading GOP VP candidates on swing voters is worryingly low. In fact Noem, Scott and Vance have an even smaller net sentiment score than Trump. Only Burgum’s score is higher, but this based on the lowest percentage of the overall discussion. This reality will be massively underwhelming to Trump. His VP pick needs to enhance his chances of victory – that’s the minimum requirement. Yet there is little evidence among these four that this is achievable.

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