Swing Voter Sentiment - Trump
Is Trump Deliberately Trying to Lose the Midterms?
January 29, 2026
On its face, the question is absurd. No president sets out to alienate swing voters, fracture their own coalition and deepen already negative sentiment ahead of a midterm cycle. Yet that is the impression left by the last two weeks of Donald Trump’s presidency. Between January 12 and 28, net sentiment among swing voters towards Donald Trump has fallen 14 pts `(–33 to –47), the worst reading we have recorded since this tracker began in 2018. And accelerates a decline that has been underway since late summer.
What makes this period distinctive is not simply the depth of negativity, but its cause. Trump’s response to falling support has been to act more boldly: escalating enforcement at home, provoking confrontation abroad and showing little interest in restraint. But rather than reversing his fortunes, each new assertion of authority appears to make them worse.
This dynamic is most clearly visible in the reaction to the killing of civilians by federal immigration agents in Minnesota, which now leads the list of negative conversation drivers. The anger isn’t narrowly about immigration policy but about the use of state power without accountability.
Alongside this, accusations of corruption and authoritarianism have intensified and begun to merge. Allegations that Trump is exploiting the presidency for personal gain now sit alongside fears that democratic safeguards are being weakened to shield him from scrutiny and entrench authority. What is striking is how normalized this language has become. Yet, as this analysis clearly shows, once voters conclude that power is being accumulated for personal survival and profit rather than public purpose, tolerance erodes quickly.
Foreign policy deepens that impression. Greenland, NATO, Iran and Venezuela are discussed together not as strategic actions, but as evidence of volatile and capricious leadership. Even voters inclined to favor a strong United States struggle to see a coherent objective. Disruption, in their view, is being pursued without thought or consequence.
This perspective is further sharpened by Trump’s reversal on “forever wars.” Many voters who were attracted precisely because he promised restraint now see him drawn toward the interventionism he once condemned..
The Epstein files remain a persistent undertow. Despite the noise of other events, many swing voters interpret Trump’s recent escalations as distraction. Once motives are assumed to be evasive, trust collapses rapidly.
Most damaging, however, is the backlash from within Trump’s own coalition. This period shows a clear rise in negative conversation from voters who supported him and now feel misled. That disappointment is fueled by Trump’s rhetoric around protests and firearms. For a coalition that treats the Second Amendment as sacrosanct, suggestions that protesters should not carry guns are read as hypocrisy — a willingness to curtail constitutional rights when inconvenient.
There is one notable absence: the economy. Cost of living and job security barely register. Ordinarily, that would offer a president relief. Here, it does the opposite. Economic anxiety has been replaced by deeper concerns about authority, restraint and judgment.
Taken together, this period looks less like misfortune and more like self-sabotage. Trump is not being undone by external shocks or media hostility. He is generating his own headwinds, repeatedly choosing actions that narrow his coalition, harden opposition and repulse his own voters. At –47, swing voters are no longer wavering. They are moving away, and for the first time large parts of Trump’s base appear moving with them.