2024 Trump Biden Tracker - Swing Voters 

Trump Victory is not Inevitable

Following the attempt on Donald Trump’s life political pundits appear agreed that the incident will bolster his chance of winning the presidential race yet further. They point to the impact of other attempted assassinations such as the one suffered by Ronald Reagan as evidence of how voter support leans towards the victim.  Yet our analysis of the online discussion in the first 24 hours following the shooting shows the determination of many left leaning swing voters to continue to speak out against Trump and his MAGA followers. In fact, it could be argued that more swing voters voice opposition to Trump in the immediate aftermath than support. To their mind, despite this dreadful event, nothing has changed. They state that Trump is still the man he was and remains unfit to lead America. They implore the Democratic Party not be distracted from the task in hand.

Challenging the defiance of the left are angry voices stemming from the right who blame Democrats for stoking up violence in the lead up to the shooting. In particular they point to recent language used by President Biden which they feel was deliberately provocative and ask sarcastically ‘are you happy now?’. They are also upset at fellow Americans expressing their glee over the attempted assassination and stress that this reflects the sick mentality of many Democratic voters.

Emotions are clearly running high in the aftermath of what has been the worse act of political violence in America in over 30 years. Yet this analysis shows a Trump White House is not the inevitable conclusion suggested with many swing voters, fearful of another Trump presidency, unwavering in their support for the Democrats.

One more thing…

Inevitably, conspiracy theories are running wild online most of which are bizarre and nonsensical. Yet one which is being discussed in a more analytical and deliberate way is the involvement of the FBI who some see as complicit, either in their ineptitude or in deliberately allowing the shooting to take place. For a lot of these folks the facts simply don’t add up. They query for example how someone was able to set up with a rifle on a roof over-looking the rally and in clear view of a secret service sniper? And question why it took agents so long get Trump off the stage and in doing so allow him to stand and gesture to the crowd?  The suggestion is that the FBI were either part of a plot or were deliberately lax. Regardless, their overall conclusion is that Trump cannot trust the secret service. 

Analysis published July 16 2024