The US Cost of Living Index
Stability Without Relief — And Patience Is Thinning
February 5-18, 2026
The most important development in this reading is not crisis, but erosion. Cost-of-living sentiment has edged down again to –9, from –8 two weeks ago and –7 at the end of December. The shift is incremental, but politically meaningful. Conditions remain broadly stable — yet stability at a deeply negative level is not comfort. It is stagnation.
After the turbulence of early 2025, households no longer feel that the cost of living is spiraling out of control. But neither do they feel improvement. The inflation shock has settled into something more permanent. Prices are not racing higher — they are simply too high. For many voters, “stable” now feels indistinguishable from “stuck.”
That distinction matters. Two weeks ago, stabilization created an opportunity — breathing room to rebuild confidence. This reading suggests that window is narrowing. As relief fails to materialize, frustration hardens.
Conversation continues to be dominated by unavoidable costs: housing, utilities, insurance, healthcare and food. Wages are widely seen as failing to keep pace. Younger voters in particular express anger at the idea that independence, home ownership, or even financial stability feels out of reach. Delayed retirement and adult children returning home are recurring themes. The tone is less panicked than mid-2025, but more resentful.
Importantly, economic sentiment is again being tied directly to political leadership. References to the “Trump economy,” tariffs, CPI figures and interest-rate policy are rising in negative conversation. Official statistics showing easing inflation are frequently met with skepticism. The gap between macro messaging and lived experience remains politically dangerous.
Stabilization without improvement also affects behavior. Households remain cautious. Even those with slightly more financial headroom are holding back — saving, paying down debt, and preparing for future shocks. This defensive mindset weakens the psychological benefit of any policy win and limits the political payoff of marginal improvements in headline data.
The broader risk is sensitivity. When trust is low, small changes feel large. A spike in gas prices, a jump in utility bills, or negative jobs headlines can quickly reignite broader anxiety. The public mood is not volatile, but it is brittle.
The key takeaway is this: cost-of-living sentiment is no longer deteriorating rapidly, but it is drifting lower within a deeply negative range. Stability at –9 does not feel like progress to voters. It feels like pressure becoming permanent.
For political leaders heading toward 2026, the lesson is clear. Stabilization alone will not rebuild confidence. Without visible and tangible improvement in everyday affordability, frustration is likely to remain embedded — shaping turnout, persuasion and vulnerability in the midterms.
About The Cost of Living Index
Most economic data captures outcomes after the fact and often fails to reflect how conditions are actually experienced. Our work instead tracks how Americans talk about the cost of living, job security and financial pressure in real time. This human-read data trains a proprietary language model that highlights early shifts in confidence and behavior at scale, before they appear in polling or government data — if at all — with clear implications for voting preferences and turnout in the 2026 midterms.